However improbable this seems, it would represent the “weakest” major rally so far, at a 102 times increase from low to high.
A recent Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis prepared by CitiFX for its institutional clients points to a potential high of $318,000 sometime in December 2021.
As highlighted by Twitter commentator Alex on Nov. 14, the exact figure is of little value over such a long time frame. However, the analysis does suggest that Bitcoin “price is likely to continue to go up, and a lot.”
Describing Bitcoin as 21st-century gold, the analyst, Tom Fitzpatrick, first looks at the long-term trend of Bitcoin price, characterized as it has been by, “unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections.”
Notably however, the three major bullish periods of BTC so far have been increasing in length. Initially, there was a 10-month run from 2010–2011, followed by a two-year run from 2011–2013, and finally a three-year run covering 2015–2017.
Conversely, Fitzpatrick posits that the period of correction following the last two bull runs has remained stable at around 12 months.
This, according to the analysis, places us squarely in the middle of a bull run which started in early 2019 and is potentially set to run for four years until late 2022.
It could be argued that such an extended bull run would lead to even higher levels, and charting “what looks like a very well defined channel” over the past seven years gives Fitzpatrick his prediction of a $318,000 Bitcoin price in December 2021.
While conceding that this figure may seem highly improbable, he points out that this “would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in percentage terms) at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever.”
These arguments include a change in the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy which occurred when the coronavirus pandemic hit. This was characterized by a vast and sustained increase in new money production, with less intention to constrain this once the economy and employment pick up again.